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Q: The financial press often states the definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP.How does that relate to the NBER's recession dating procedure?Q: Why doesn't the committee accept the two-quarter definition?A: The committee's procedure for identifying turning points differs from the two-quarter rule in a number of ways.The time in between is a recession, a period when economic activity is contracting. As of September 2010, when we decided that a trough had occurred in June 2009, the economy was still weak, with lingering high unemployment, but had expanded considerably from its trough 15 months earlier.Q: How do the movements of unemployment claims inform the Bureau's thinking?A: Personal income comes from Table 2.6 of the National Income and Product Accounts, less personal current transfer receipts from the same table, deflated by a monthly interpolation of the price index for gross domestic product, NIPA Table 1.1.9. The committee also considered new estimates of monthly real GDP and GDI constructed by two committee members, James Stock and Mark Watson (available here).
The committee places real Gross Domestic Income on an equal footing with real GDP; real GDI declined for six consecutive quarters in the recent recession.
The differences between these two sets of estimates were particularly evident in the recessions of 20-2009.
Q: How does the committee weight employment in determining the dates of peaks and troughs? In the 2007-2009 recession, the central indicators–real GDP and real GDI–gave mixed signals about the peak date and a clear signal about the trough date.
A: The unemployment rate is a trendless indicator that moves in the opposite direction from most other cyclical indicators.
Its level in February 1949 was the same 4.7 percent as in November 2007.
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In the 2001 recession, we found a clear signal in employment and a mixed one in the various measures of output.